Predicting Healthcare Costs: A Collaborative Effort by aNumak & Company and Actable.ai

aNumak & Company
4 min readSep 13, 2023

Introduction

In today’s dynamic healthcare landscape, insurance companies face a daunting challenge: accurately predicting healthcare costs. The complexities of medical expenses, coupled with the ever-evolving healthcare landscape, make it imperative for insurance providers to employ cutting-edge data analytics and artificial intelligence. In this article, we delve into how aNumak & Company, a leading health insurance provider, partnered with Actable.ai, a pioneer in AI and data science, to revolutionize healthcare cost prediction.

The Challenge

aNumak & Company ® has a singular mission — to provide its policyholders with the best possible healthcare coverage while maintaining a sustainable bottom line. Achieving this balance requires a deep understanding of healthcare costs, which are influenced by numerous factors, including an individual’s age, gender, BMI, smoking habits, number of children, and geographic region.

Traditionally, predicting healthcare costs involved extensive manual analysis and relied on historical data trends. However, this approach often fell short, mainly when forecasting costs associated with rare medical conditions. aNumak & Company recognized the need for a more precise and data-driven solution.

The Partnership

To tackle this challenge, aNumak & Company sought the expertise of Actable.ai, a trailblazer in data science and artificial intelligence. Actable.ai’s track record in developing predictive models and leveraging advanced analytics made them the ideal partner for this endeavor.

The Process

The collaboration between aNumak & Company and Actable.ai followed a well-defined process:

  1. Data Collection and Exploration:
  • The first step involved gathering a comprehensive dataset. This dataset included information on policyholders, such as age, sex, BMI, number of children, smoking habits, region, and the healthcare costs they claimed in a given year.
  • Actable.ai employed advanced data exploration techniques to understand the relationships between these variables and healthcare costs.

2. Correlation Analysis:

  • Actable.ai used correlational analysis to quantify the relationships between the predictor variables and healthcare costs.
  • Visualizations, such as scatter plots and linear regression plots, were generated to help interpret these correlations.

3. Model Building:

  • Recognizing that healthcare costs are continuous, Actable.ai chose regression analysis as the modeling technique.
  • The predictive model was constructed with healthcare charges as the target variable and age, BMI, children, region, sex, and smoker status as predictors.
  • The model was fine-tuned to optimize accuracy.

4. Model Evaluation:

  • The model’s performance was rigorously evaluated using metrics like R-squared (R²) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). A high R² value of 0.87 indicated strong predictability.

5. Model Deployment and API Integration:

  • Once the model was trained and validated, it was deployed for practical use.
  • Users could generate predictions with new data through the “Live Model” interface or integrate the model into their applications using Actable.ai’s API.

The Results

The collaboration between aNumak & Company and Actable.ai yielded remarkable results:

  1. Improved Accuracy: The predictive model achieved an R² of 0.87, signifying a high level of predictability. The average difference between predicted healthcare costs and actual costs was a mere $2,432.3, as measured by the Mean Absolute Error.
  2. Enhanced Decision-Making: Armed with this precise predictive tool, aNumak & Company can now make more informed decisions regarding premium pricing, risk assessment, and resource allocation.
  3. API Integration: The availability of an API means that aNumak & Company can seamlessly integrate the model into their existing systems, providing real-time predictions to underwriters and policyholders alike.

Conclusion

The collaboration between aNumak & Company ® and Actable.ai exemplifies the power of data science and artificial intelligence in addressing complex challenges in the healthcare industry. By accurately predicting healthcare costs, insurance providers can balance offering comprehensive coverage and maintaining financial sustainability. This partnership benefits aNumak & Company and underscores the potential for innovative solutions in the broader insurance sector. As healthcare evolves, data-driven insights will play a pivotal role in shaping the industry’s future.

Click here to review the model and learn more.

For further inquiries or to explore how this solution can benefit your organization, please get in touch with us at marketing@anumak.com. We look forward to hearing from you and discussing how predictive analytics can transform your healthcare cost predictions.

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aNumak & Company

aNumak & Company is a Global Business and Management Consulting firm with expertise in building scalable business models for diverse industry verticals.